During the start of the second round of this past years NBA Draft, I kept hoping the Lakers would buy a draft pick in that 40-50 range quite badly because of how truly deep and talented this draft class was projected to be. Last year I believe I turned off the draft after the end of the 20th pick as a result of such a poor draft class. The only rookies worth mentioning are Michael Carter Williams, Victor Oladipo, Trey Burke and Kelly Ollnyk, and none of them were extremely special last year. I'm not trying to hate, I do think MCW and Oladipo have great potential, and other guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and KC Pope are solid role players with potential, but they were to far and in between.
MCW's Rookie of the Year stat line was also quite inflated and not a true representation of how good he really is, as we can take Evan Turner for example who was 18ppg, 7rpg, 4apg, 1spg, 47%FG with the Sixers for 50+games looking like an All-Star on the highest paced team in the NBA; then he was traded to the Pacers and couldn't buy court time even though they were in desperate need of a backup SF/SG just like him; he averaged 6-7ppg, 3rpg, 1apg, 34%FG in Indiana, and lost his role in the playoffs to old veteran sharp shooter Rasual Butler...
Anyway, I'm just stating Philly played no D and averaged so many possessions per game his numbers are skewed, and people tend to not look at his 40%FG, 28%3ptFG, and 70%FT shooting from last year. He posted a PER of 15.5, in a league where 15.0 is the average PER. No MCW isn't going to fail in the future, once he develops his outside shooting a bit and has more talent around him he should improve his efficiency and overall ability to make teammates better and actually try to win games. I'm just being objective showing you how bad last years draft was, an epic all time bad draft possibly, and this years draft is quite the opposite.Compare MCW to the ROTY the year before, Damian Lillard, who was fighting with Anthony Davis and a couple others for ROTY.
Lillards ROTY: 19.0 points, 6.5 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 43%FG, 37%3PT, 83%FT
MCW ROTY: 17.1 points, 6.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 40%FG, 28%3PT, 70%FT
PER: Lillard's 16.5 ROTY to Carter-Williams 15.5 PER ROTY campaigns are proof of my dicussion. Also, Lillard increased his scoring, steals, 3pt shooting, FT% and getting 5+ FT attempts a game in his second year to post a 18.6 PER (All-Star Level PER) and was a stud in the playoffs. To me MCW could really fall into that Tyreke Evans ROTY category of "best year of career", joins Damon Stoudemire too, hah. I hope it's not the case, and doubt it is, but like Tyreke he's 6'5''/6'6'' playing PG and had a great rookie year on a bad team. If that shot doesn't improve drastically, defenses will adjust and a Tyreke slide in stats is all very possible.
The Orlando and Las Vegas Summer Leagues are being played at an all time highest level of competition, especially in the tournament games for each league. I've been a frequent fan / scout of the Vegas Summer League for years, and compared to 6 years ago it has gone from a decent, fun summer league for young NBA players, rookies, and of course those NBA fringe players seeking their NBA dream (or to get noticed by the European scouts), and has transformed into all that magnified much stronger with more games being played and much more team oriented games being played as well.
With the days of isolation stat stuffing summer league games (think Marcus Banks averaging nearly 50 points per game in 2006 I believe, could of been a year before or after, Banks a guy that never truly made it in the NBA other than getting a good contract from Phoenix as a result of that Summer League, and he was never a rotation player in the NBA. The Summer League now is played a lot more like the NBA, and after watching this years Vegas games, especially in the tournament, this is easily the most talented draft class since the infamous King James draft:
-Lottery: *Lebron James (1st), *Dwayne Wade (5th), *Carmelo Anthony (3rd), *Chris Bosh (4th), *David West (18th), *Chris Kaman (6th), Kirk Hinrich (7), TJ Ford (8), Nick Collison (12th), Luke Ridnour (14th)
-Late First Rounders: *Josh Howard (29th), Dahntay Jones (20th), Boris Diaw (21st), Leandro Barbosa (28th), Carlos Delfino (25th), Kendrick Perkins (26th)
-2nd rounders: *Mo Williams (47th), James Jones (49th), Kyle Korver (51st),
-The 8 players to make one All-Star time is amazing, but the amount of All-Star appearances in total is much more impressive (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Bosh have all been All-Stars since 2005 to this date in 2014). TJ Ford was borderline All-Star as well but his scary neck injury sort of altered his life and career.
-2003 undrafted Spaniard Jose Calderon carved out a pretty nice career; I imagine some undrafted rookies have some stuff to prove, as well as the foreigners coming over from this draft or previous ones.
-The crazy amount of legit starters, rotation players, and players that developed into specialists (after the lottery picks) to stay in the league (like 3pt specialist James Jones) from the latter first round and 2nd round is astonishing. The amount of NBA seasons under these players belt might be as high as any draft to date. High Schooler Kendrick Perkins was drafted in the end of the 1st at pick 26, only to grow into a defensive specialist at Center and help the Celtics to a NBA Championship. The amount of talent, types of talent, and variance of age and experience in the 2003 draft is a lot like the 2013 draft. Great 1 and done players, great 2 year guys like Smart, and great 4 year guys like TJ Warren and Nick Johnson (etc).
-4 Legit Superstar / Franchise Pieces in Lebron, Wade, Bosh and Melo and great 2nd Option studs in David West (latter NO years), Kaman (one season he was a stud), and even Josh Howard was a great player and 2nd option until he destroyed his knee. But 4 superstars like that in one draft... could 2014 be the same, I think so. Is there a Lebron level player? I doubt it, but I think there's a Bosh or possibly a Melo type level talent in quite a few players, though we need 1-4 seasons to really tell... looking back on this post should be fun.
-How did Joe Dumars draft Darko Milicic (decent rotation player when he was in the NBA), and is there a Darko in the top 5-10 picks of the 2014 draft? Maybe Von Leh doesn't work out.
I know that's a strong statement to make, and for me to now state I think this season we will see the average age of an NBA Player drop 1+ years due to the influx of the young talent drafted. Most years there's the 30 first rounder's guaranteed to contracts. Usually 10-15 second rounders make squads, with another 10 or so un-drafted rookies finding a squad, whether it's for a season or just the start of their NBA careers. This years draft just had so much depth, whether it be the 10-20 possible All-Star level potential players in the first round or mid-late firsts like 4 year college player and ACC Points Leader TJ Warren is instantly an NBA caliber rotation player, or a 2nd rounder who we've seen quite a few show in the summer league are going to be capable rotation players in their first year in the NBA, picks like Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, or those late first rounders like Rodney Hood (a late first rounder who is truly NBA ready, possibly starting caliber from Duke), who would of been a top lottery pick had he been in last years draft. Other late firsts like Gary Harris and Mitch McGary are also lottery picks in almost any draft since 2003.
Don't be too surprised when the race for NBA 2015 Rookie of the Year is one of the hardest to choose from in NBA history. Jabari Parker looks like he can be that 20 point guy for the Bucks, but there are just too many others with talent to really know who will get the minutes and production, whether it's Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, a TJ Warren type if given the minutes, or even a 2nd Rounder put in the right situation could easily surprise people, like a Nick Johnson who has shown he belongs on the Rockets squad (solid summer league, great athlete with high IQ, great NBA ready size to guard PG, SG, and SF's) and the Rockets just traded away Lin.... who knows what kind of year he could end up having as a possible 6th man depending on training camp.
I must admit, I am secretly salivating when I watch the TJ Warren's, Nick Johnson's and other 4 year players that were all punished by scouts (in a sense), as if a 22 year old's "potential" is nothing compared to say a Zach Lavine lottery pick (19 year old who is full of potential and proving he's more than he was in college already), yet a lot of these players are NBA ready bodies, which is rare.
Nerlens Noel is considered a true rookie, just like Blake Griffin who missed his entire first season to injury as well. He ended up winning ROTY, and Noel is my top bet along with Jabari at this moment. Anyone that saw the summer league knows what I mean, but to be honest there are anywhere from 5-15+ guys that could end up surprising us and competing for rookie of the year. This years 2nd second rounders are possible late lottery picks in previous last 3 drafts.....
ALL THESE ROOKIES ARE NBA READY TO START OR BE ROTATION PLAYERS, PUT UP GOOD TO GREAT NUMBERS, AND WIN ROTY POSSIBLY
-Jabari Parker
-Nerlens Noel
-Andrew Wiggins
-Marcus Smart
-Aaron Gordon
-Dante Exum
-Julius Randle
-TJ Warren
-Elfrid Payton
-Noah Von Leh
-Russ Smith
-Gary Harris
-Dough McDermot
-Rodney Hood
-2nd Rounders that could surprise GALORE
The performances each of these rookies have put on in either one or both of the Orlando and Las Vegas Summer League's showed me that this draft class is 100% FOR REAL!
MCW's Rookie of the Year stat line was also quite inflated and not a true representation of how good he really is, as we can take Evan Turner for example who was 18ppg, 7rpg, 4apg, 1spg, 47%FG with the Sixers for 50+games looking like an All-Star on the highest paced team in the NBA; then he was traded to the Pacers and couldn't buy court time even though they were in desperate need of a backup SF/SG just like him; he averaged 6-7ppg, 3rpg, 1apg, 34%FG in Indiana, and lost his role in the playoffs to old veteran sharp shooter Rasual Butler...
Anyway, I'm just stating Philly played no D and averaged so many possessions per game his numbers are skewed, and people tend to not look at his 40%FG, 28%3ptFG, and 70%FT shooting from last year. He posted a PER of 15.5, in a league where 15.0 is the average PER. No MCW isn't going to fail in the future, once he develops his outside shooting a bit and has more talent around him he should improve his efficiency and overall ability to make teammates better and actually try to win games. I'm just being objective showing you how bad last years draft was, an epic all time bad draft possibly, and this years draft is quite the opposite.Compare MCW to the ROTY the year before, Damian Lillard, who was fighting with Anthony Davis and a couple others for ROTY.
Lillards ROTY: 19.0 points, 6.5 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 43%FG, 37%3PT, 83%FT
MCW ROTY: 17.1 points, 6.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 40%FG, 28%3PT, 70%FT
PER: Lillard's 16.5 ROTY to Carter-Williams 15.5 PER ROTY campaigns are proof of my dicussion. Also, Lillard increased his scoring, steals, 3pt shooting, FT% and getting 5+ FT attempts a game in his second year to post a 18.6 PER (All-Star Level PER) and was a stud in the playoffs. To me MCW could really fall into that Tyreke Evans ROTY category of "best year of career", joins Damon Stoudemire too, hah. I hope it's not the case, and doubt it is, but like Tyreke he's 6'5''/6'6'' playing PG and had a great rookie year on a bad team. If that shot doesn't improve drastically, defenses will adjust and a Tyreke slide in stats is all very possible.
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With the days of isolation stat stuffing summer league games (think Marcus Banks averaging nearly 50 points per game in 2006 I believe, could of been a year before or after, Banks a guy that never truly made it in the NBA other than getting a good contract from Phoenix as a result of that Summer League, and he was never a rotation player in the NBA. The Summer League now is played a lot more like the NBA, and after watching this years Vegas games, especially in the tournament, this is easily the most talented draft class since the infamous King James draft:
2003 NBA Draft
( *at least one All-Star Game)
-Lottery: *Lebron James (1st), *Dwayne Wade (5th), *Carmelo Anthony (3rd), *Chris Bosh (4th), *David West (18th), *Chris Kaman (6th), Kirk Hinrich (7), TJ Ford (8), Nick Collison (12th), Luke Ridnour (14th)
-Late First Rounders: *Josh Howard (29th), Dahntay Jones (20th), Boris Diaw (21st), Leandro Barbosa (28th), Carlos Delfino (25th), Kendrick Perkins (26th)
-2nd rounders: *Mo Williams (47th), James Jones (49th), Kyle Korver (51st),
-The 8 players to make one All-Star time is amazing, but the amount of All-Star appearances in total is much more impressive (Lebron, Wade, Melo, Bosh have all been All-Stars since 2005 to this date in 2014). TJ Ford was borderline All-Star as well but his scary neck injury sort of altered his life and career.
-2003 undrafted Spaniard Jose Calderon carved out a pretty nice career; I imagine some undrafted rookies have some stuff to prove, as well as the foreigners coming over from this draft or previous ones.
-The crazy amount of legit starters, rotation players, and players that developed into specialists (after the lottery picks) to stay in the league (like 3pt specialist James Jones) from the latter first round and 2nd round is astonishing. The amount of NBA seasons under these players belt might be as high as any draft to date. High Schooler Kendrick Perkins was drafted in the end of the 1st at pick 26, only to grow into a defensive specialist at Center and help the Celtics to a NBA Championship. The amount of talent, types of talent, and variance of age and experience in the 2003 draft is a lot like the 2013 draft. Great 1 and done players, great 2 year guys like Smart, and great 4 year guys like TJ Warren and Nick Johnson (etc).
-4 Legit Superstar / Franchise Pieces in Lebron, Wade, Bosh and Melo and great 2nd Option studs in David West (latter NO years), Kaman (one season he was a stud), and even Josh Howard was a great player and 2nd option until he destroyed his knee. But 4 superstars like that in one draft... could 2014 be the same, I think so. Is there a Lebron level player? I doubt it, but I think there's a Bosh or possibly a Melo type level talent in quite a few players, though we need 1-4 seasons to really tell... looking back on this post should be fun.
-How did Joe Dumars draft Darko Milicic (decent rotation player when he was in the NBA), and is there a Darko in the top 5-10 picks of the 2014 draft? Maybe Von Leh doesn't work out.
I know that's a strong statement to make, and for me to now state I think this season we will see the average age of an NBA Player drop 1+ years due to the influx of the young talent drafted. Most years there's the 30 first rounder's guaranteed to contracts. Usually 10-15 second rounders make squads, with another 10 or so un-drafted rookies finding a squad, whether it's for a season or just the start of their NBA careers. This years draft just had so much depth, whether it be the 10-20 possible All-Star level potential players in the first round or mid-late firsts like 4 year college player and ACC Points Leader TJ Warren is instantly an NBA caliber rotation player, or a 2nd rounder who we've seen quite a few show in the summer league are going to be capable rotation players in their first year in the NBA, picks like Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, or those late first rounders like Rodney Hood (a late first rounder who is truly NBA ready, possibly starting caliber from Duke), who would of been a top lottery pick had he been in last years draft. Other late firsts like Gary Harris and Mitch McGary are also lottery picks in almost any draft since 2003.
Don't be too surprised when the race for NBA 2015 Rookie of the Year is one of the hardest to choose from in NBA history. Jabari Parker looks like he can be that 20 point guy for the Bucks, but there are just too many others with talent to really know who will get the minutes and production, whether it's Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, a TJ Warren type if given the minutes, or even a 2nd Rounder put in the right situation could easily surprise people, like a Nick Johnson who has shown he belongs on the Rockets squad (solid summer league, great athlete with high IQ, great NBA ready size to guard PG, SG, and SF's) and the Rockets just traded away Lin.... who knows what kind of year he could end up having as a possible 6th man depending on training camp.
Nerlens Noel is considered a true rookie, just like Blake Griffin who missed his entire first season to injury as well. He ended up winning ROTY, and Noel is my top bet along with Jabari at this moment. Anyone that saw the summer league knows what I mean, but to be honest there are anywhere from 5-15+ guys that could end up surprising us and competing for rookie of the year. This years 2nd second rounders are possible late lottery picks in previous last 3 drafts.....
ALL THESE ROOKIES ARE NBA READY TO START OR BE ROTATION PLAYERS, PUT UP GOOD TO GREAT NUMBERS, AND WIN ROTY POSSIBLY
-Jabari Parker
-Nerlens Noel
-Andrew Wiggins
-Marcus Smart
-Aaron Gordon
-Dante Exum
-Julius Randle
-TJ Warren
-Elfrid Payton
-Noah Von Leh
-Russ Smith
-Gary Harris
-Dough McDermot
-Rodney Hood
-2nd Rounders that could surprise GALORE
The performances each of these rookies have put on in either one or both of the Orlando and Las Vegas Summer League's showed me that this draft class is 100% FOR REAL!
What does ''good to great numbers'' even mean?
ReplyDeleteGary Harris and Nick Stauskas as well as possible pointguards and bigs not in loterry