Sure, most of the current NBA focus is on the NBA's conference finals currently going on. But after tonight, it appears I am looking smart as the Heat went up 3 games to 1 on the Pacers, while the Spurs should be in the NBA Finals like I predicted, OKC does have Ibaka back and finally won a game to make that series 2-1 in favor of the Spurs. Predicting the OKC/SAS Western Final and the IND/MIA Eastern Final matchup makes me proud too, though I did think for an article or so the Wizards would take out the Pacers....
The Indiana Pacers are definitely a top 5 NBA team, maybe better, maybe worse. Roy Hibbert's inconsistencies have really caused them issues, while they also are lacking with George Hill as their starting Point Guard. He's a nice all around player combo guard, but in my opinion is best served as the 6th man role, like he was on the Spurs. But the Pacers are built strong with depth and great defense (well, in the regular season), and they have a legit franchise player in Paul George, who broke-out in the playoffs 2 years ago playing Shooting-Guard next to Danny Granger at Small-Forward as they really challenged the Heat in the 2011 ECF's. Granger went down with a near career ending type of injury (and is only now getting back to the NBA level of play, though the Pacers traded him to get some cap relief).
Why does this matter? Well, first off the the Pacers have a nice, deep team (full of some hefty contracts) with a great All-Star and leader in Paul George, a 6'10'' SF/SG that is easily the best starting small forward aside Durant and Lebron. He's been great all year, including the playoffs, but this matchup with Lebron is hurting George's shooting badly. Roy Hibbert has been great for them until Bynum showed up, and now Hibbert seems to be playing like his normal self again after struggling the first 2 rounds of the playoffs and end of the regular season. You are all familiar with the team, and while Stephenson broke out last playoffs, had a great regular season (led the league with 5 triple doubles) and showed he can be efficient and a two way player. The problem is he needs the ball and has a high usage right, while Paul George is the same way, and George Hill does somewhat too. But the main problem is that they just don't have the finances and money to keep Stephenson this summer, and maybe it's for the best.
Lance Stephenson is a very unique player. Full of competitive fire and emotion he's gone from a "head case" type of player that Indiana drafted in the 2nd round of the NBA Draft (pick 40), and after two years of sitting behind Granger/George averaging 3.0 points a game his first 2 seasons, something happened. He had one of those "breakout in season 3" like so many players do. With Granger going down with injury, someone had to take over the starting SG spot, and Lance won the gig last season, only to have a mediocre regular season. But with a deep Pacers squad they didn't need him to be a superstar, or they didn't think so.
After breaking out in the playoffs last season, he really showed his ability to be a team player in the regular season, averaging 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.8 steals, and shot a robust and improved greatly 49%FG and 35% from 3pt-land, also 71%FT, all three career highs in shooting, as well as career high's in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes. At the age of 23, he's had a great playoffs overall too, actually appears to be the best Pacer in this Heat matchup, though George does have Lebron guarding him most the game. Stephenson is averaging right around 17 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, 1 steal and shooting a solid 46% against the NBA's returning two time champs and Dwyane Wade matched up with him.
There's a risk factor here, as he can turn the ball over and be overly emotional at times, but as an unrestricted free agent this summer he is going to have teams coming after him, and the Pacers just don't seem like they will end up keeping him. What the Pacers should do is move George Hill to 6th man and draft, trade, or sign and trade Stephenson for a Point-Guard, if not, then start Hill at PG and give yourself a shooter and defender at Shooting Guard like a Ray Allen type of guy that will stretch the floor for Indy's bigs. I know they want to keep Stephenson, but re-signing him will be tough....
Why? Does Stephenson want out?
That I don't know, though I can imagine a 23 year old with his talent and ball handling skills would rather be a bigger piece of a different offense, though this is just my theory. What really matters is that the Indiana Pacers have a lot of players on their books next season with hefty contracts:
Pacers 2014-2015 Player Contracts:
(Unless noted the player contract is guaranteed)
Roy Hibbert - $14.9 million
Paul George - $13.7 million*
David West - $12.0 million
George Hill - $8.0 million
Luis Scola - $4.9 million (team option likely picked up)
Ian Mahimni - $4.0 million
Chris Copeland - $3.1 million
CJ Watson - $2.0 million
Solomon Hill - $1.3 million
Orlando Johnson & Donald Sloan are both young rookie/2nd year players right around $1 million a piece though Pacers have a team option on them and Scola, using it on any of them seems senseless. Scola is the only one facing the team opting him out (even though he's a steal at 4.9 mil as a great backup PF), and as the rest of the contracts are guaranteed, they might be better off re-signing Evan Turner for dirt cheap and give him a chance after a training camp, or let Orlando Johnson (who can really shoot) a chance.
*When Paul George is named to the All-NBA 2nd team (maybe 1st) he gets a $3 million bump to his salary as well.
*Of course Paul George will make an All-NBA team so let's now add his $3 mil bump so he's making $16.7 million next year, meaning they could even let Scola go and still only have around 8 million in cap space to offer Lance; if they keep Scola (as they likely should) and George gets his obvious raise, they have about 4-5 million to offer.
There's at least 5 NBA teams that would offer Lance around 8-10 million a year, maybe more, so it's really unlikely the Pacers have ANY real chance he stays. They can try to talk him into it as they are a contender, but I just think Lance wants to make his mark in the NBA (plus he's young at just 23, had he been 30 I could imagine him re-signing for a little cheaper). Then again, a bad team in need of a SG/SF could go crazy, say the Bobcats, and offer him a big $12+ million a year type of contract. Or how bout those LA Lakers come in and offer a $40+million 4 year deal with incentives... he would be able to play next to Kobe for a year or maybe two and then take over the sqaud (assuming he improves and learns the Kobe tricks).
The risk for these teams is hard to gauge, but that's what the Free Agency is all about. On many of the sites ranking Free Agents, Lance Stephenson is ahead of guys like Trevor Ariza and even Rudy Gay (if he opts out), as Lance is possibly a star in the making with legit All-Star potential and even possible 1st option leader of a team, if not 2nd option with a great big guy. He's gotta be thinking about which teams want him, which teams he likes, and if he is fond of his hometown or college town, or does he love the Lakers, Knicks, Bulls, or Celtics franchises with huge markets.... that remains to be seen.
Lance Stephenson is due for a nice payday, and while he is a risk, it's not the biggest risk ever. He's shown this entire season his skill and team play, improving his shot immensely (and shot selection), while playing defense better as well (could still improve that area a bit). At 23, he's got plenty of years before his prime, and having only just really played a full season this year, he's got plenty of legs under him for a solid 6-7 years left at the minimum.
I think the Lakers should go after him, as he can play SG, SF, and even PG with his decision making. At 6'6'' in shoes, he's got size, as well as a solid NBA body. His arms are extremely long, and a near 7 foot wingspan is huge. Add to that he is extremely athletic and has a huge vertical, as well as appearing to mature and improve his shot, shot selection, range, and consistency, you have a young player with a good work ethic that steps up his play in the playoffs.
That's a player I want on my team. Some might not love his attitude or the way his mannerisms are, and I have a feeling he learned you don't try to talk smack about Lebron James when you are playing against him in the playoffs, but at the same time it shows he has the confidence and attitude you want in your top 1-2-3 players on your team.
I imagine many teams will be after him, and as a Laker fan I think we should steal him from the Pacers. Stephenson with some maturity and the chance to play with a team built a little more around him would allow him to be a 18-22 point, 6-8 rebound, 5-7 assists type of player that can also defend. I see no reason why his 3pt percentage and FT percentage doesn't continue to climb each year with him working on it, and that will only raise his already solid 49%FG.
He's got things to learn, but ultimately he could be the hidden gem of this Free Agency. Things will get interesting this summer. If Indiana really wants to keep him they will likely have to trade either David West or Roy Hibbert for a player that makes a decent amount less than themselves, and I'm not sure I see that as plausible.
So to all Pacer fans, I think it's time to say "Goodbye Lance", as I think he's got 1, maybe 2 games left for the Pacers in his career.
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