EASTERN CONFERENCE:
#2 Miami Heat vs #5 Brooklyn Nets
While the Miami Heat had a nice week off and easy 4 game series, the rest of the NBA teams in the playoffs were battling it out every other day, including the New Jersey Nets. This fatigue factor really only showed in the Miami and Nets opening game series, as the Heat rested a week in Miami to open round 2 at home against the Nets; a team that had just wrapped up game 7 of round 1 on the road in Toronto on one day, flying from Toronto to Miami the next day, and opening up round 1 away from home again with no chance to really rest and no time to gameplan in comparison to the Heat.
If people don't think fatigue played a factor in that opening game, well, you might want to re-think that. No I don't think the Nets will win this series, but they should be fresh and adjusted for Game 2 having a day off with no travel and light or little to no practice. The Nets I project to win 2 games in this series. They have savvy veterans that know how to keep pace, and they are a good team on the road as a result. They beat the Heat all 4 times in the regular season out-playing them "small-ball style" but many of those games the Heat were not at full power. However the Nets provide interesting matchups across the board, and I can't see a team with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Paul Peirce, and Kevin Garnett not at least winning 1 game this series, let alone 2 games. I think Livingston will have some solid outings with the matchup, and while I don't think they have a chance at this series I'd love to see it get competitive.
*Miami over Nets in 6 Games
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#1 Indiana Pacers vs #6 Washington Wizards
After a disastrous final month for Indiana in the regular season, they almost ended up choking against Atlanta a sub .500% 8 seed team that put 5 shooters on the floor, causing major problems for the Pacers. Roy Hibbert has also gone from All-Star level Center to a no show negative on the court. The Pacers look like they are lost, and are the most immature NBA team in the NBA. The Wizards surprised most people (not me as I am high on them and had them winning 1 round this year to end the season), defeating the Bulls rather effectively, as all 5 starters are averaging double digits, and the John Wall / Bradley Beal back-court is becoming one of the best in the NBA. Nene and Gortat are extremely underrated in the front court, adding career season Trevor Ariza as the glue guy / defensive specialist that hits 3's and can do a little of everything is playing and shooting great. The team has a solid bench too with Andre Miller, Martel Webster, Trevor Booker, and Kevin Seraphim all often providing solid bench minutes.
I think people forgot about Washington after the first half of the season, as Nene missed a ton of games causing Trevor Booker to start and the bench to be altered and weaker, and the Wizards performed average as a team. With Nene in their starting lineup this Wizard team is a really potent, deadly offense and goes through times where they play some lockdown defense. The Wizards matchup great with the Pacers, having size to match absent Hibbert with Gortat, Ariza to guard Paul George, Nene out-mans David West, Beal and Stephenson are both solid young blooming SG's, and John Wall just owns the PG matchup with George Hill. I honestly think the Pacers have imploded, Bynum being signed started the Hibbert downfall, the Granger trade for Evan Turner added to the lack of trust in the roster and we are left watching a once confident top team play like this confused, frustrated team resembling the Pacers of 5 years ago. The Wizards are underrated and will win this series. Sure they stole game 1 on the road, but Indiana will test them and have some good games. If Hibbert can show up they have a chance, but the Wizards in 5 games is what I truly expect. 6 games wouldn't surprise me, but I don't think Indiana is ready to take down the Wizards, or Heat, while I see that as a great matchup.
*Wizards over Pacers in 5 Games
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#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #5 Portland Trail-Blazers
This appears to be a great matchup on paper. Two great point-guards in Damian Lillard and Tony Parker. Two great power-forwards in LaMarcus Aldridge and Timmy Duncan. Solid starting lineups with good bench play. The Blazers looked like a future super-team against the Rockets. Damian Lillard, Rookie of the Year last year, All-Star this year, and in his first playoff game he showed that he's a true gamer. Aldridge opened up the series with two 40+ point games. People are now all really high on the Blazers, it's the "trend". They are a great team, as I have discussed. But people forget the Rockets two weakest positions: the PG spot and the PF spot. Remember game 1 as Terrence Jones tried to guard Aldridge all game? That was just funny, and kind of sad it took McHale two games nearly to put Asik and Howard up front instead. Even then, you just had matchup issues across the board. Game 1 of the Spurs series showed the Blazers more like they truly are. The Spurs don't have defensive weaknesses like the Rockets, but they do have an even more efficient offense too.
The Spurs are my pick for this years title. Their opening round did not go as planned, taking 7 games to defeat a very, very underrated Dallas Mavericks squad with great depth and one of the best 8 seed teams ever in the playoffs. But I still believe in the Spurs "Big 3" origination, and it's truly shown. Everyone thinks the Celtics began the Big 3 franchise way to win style, getting Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett all together in one off-season to go and win an NBA Title that year together (and playing in another Finals losing to the Lakers). I still say that Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili are the true "BIG 3". All 3 averaged at least 17+ points a game in the opening series, while Tony and Manu averaged 5 assists to go along with 50%FG efficiency, and Timmy doing his 17 point, 9 rebound, 2 block a game 55%FG high level of play.
The Spurs are just too lethal, with a great starting 5, another great 5+ players off the bench with NBA level skills and talent, and the best coach in the game. Kawhi Leanoard has shot very poorly from three-point land so far this series, and yet they are still successful. Yes he does all the intangibles and defends and rebounds, but once his shot starts to hit a little more regularly they will only be better. They match-up really well with the Blazers, having Danny Green start at SG and Manu move to 6th man was a great move by Poppovich. They can make Aldridge and Lillard look human with their team defense, and they have more depth too.
I just think it would take a miracle for the Blazers to win this series, and I honestly love the Blazers squad.. The Spurs are really confident in their game right now and they lust for revenge after last years Final's loss in the final minute of game 7. They built a stronger team than last year, and somehow Tim Duncan has improved his game after 2 previous decent seasons. They are on a quest.
*Spurs over Blazers in 5 Games---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#2 OKC Thunder vs #3 LA ClippersThis is that one series I really can't predict, even after Chris Paul went all crazy on them in game one. The Clips were able to steal game 1 at OKC, both teams coming off of 7 game series too. Paul is truly the ultimate PG, with the ability to shoot when he's really feeling it and also create for his teammates. Griffin continues to provide a solid and efficient scoring option up front and the Clipper shooters are hitting their treys, including Paul ( Reddick, Crawford, Collison, Barnes, Dudley) and their backups helping them out just enough. The Thunder seemed like they were kind of flat, and while stealing game one on the road is huge, I still think this is a 7 game series toss up. The matchups are great, and I expect Durant to have a game or two where he really explodes and leads them to wins (who can really guard him on the Clippers? Barnes?)...
The Thunder looked like they had a solid starting five and great bench throughout the season. But the playoffs are a much different experience and atmosphere. Many of their younger guys have been streaky and inconsistent, while Sefalosha has been horrible from three point land (resulting in Caron Butler starting over him last series). Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb and Steven Adams haven't really contributed like they can consistently, and Serge Ibaka is purely there for defense it seems. They will find ways to counter what the Clippers do, whether it's go small and matchup or go bigger and control pace (not sure Westbrook can do this).
I will go with the Clippers, simply because I believe he is truly a great coach, right their with a Poppovich. Instilling his system from Boston into the Clippers squad has transformed them from talented playoff team to a legit contender. DeAndre Jordan has transformed into the most entertaining Center to watch in the NBA, utilizing his skills in the system with only shots in the paint (shooting over 70% in the playoffs after leading the NBA in FG% averaging 10.1 points a night to go with 13.9 rebounds and 3 blocks). All this has carried over to the playoffs, as he leads everyone in rebounding, blocked shots, and FG%. Chris Paul has been his expected self, leading them with 20 or so points and 10 assists, with savvy defense and leading the playoffs in steals per game near 3.0.
But it all comes down to one man: Blake Griffin. He has been mediocre in the last 2 playoffs, not having a solid mid-range game, foul plagued, inconsistent play, and free throw shooting hurt him so much in the past playoffs. Now he is the focal point of the Clippers offense, and while CP3 runs it all, when they get into the half-court sets they go through Griffin in the post. He has been great at finishing inside, mixing up moves, hitting that 15-18 foot jumper, and defensively holding his own. He's been pretty consistent too, shooting well over 50% from the field in the playoffs. If he can continue this type of play confidently, the Clippers could really upset the Thunder and even possibly future series.
*Clippers over Thunder in 7 Games
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What do you guys think? Who's going to be in the WCF's and ECF's?
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